This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.įunding: Funding provided by National Science Foundation 488 (NSF-DEB-0824708) and the United States Department of Energy (DE-FC02-06ER64159) grants funded this project. Received: JanuAccepted: ApPublished: May 18, 2012Ĭopyright: © 2012 Conlisk et al. PLoS ONE 7(5):Įditor: Gil Bohrer, Ohio State University, United States of America (2012) The Roles of Dispersal, Fecundity, and Predation in the Population Persistence of an Oak ( Quercus engelmannii) under Global Change. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations.Ĭitation: Conlisk E, Lawson D, Syphard AD, Franklin J, Flint L, Flint A, et al. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors – climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency – emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species - Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. A species’ response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species’ ability to migrate or adapt.
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